Awesome weekend for the Amazin's- the pitching is untouchable, Delgado looks like he's going to at least equal last year's performance and the team managed to win three games with virtually no contribution from David Wright at the plate. All they have to do now is win one or two more games than the Phillies the rest of the year.
I had great seats on Sunday- field level down the left field line, and couldn't have asked for a better day. I got to the game early to take advantage of my Diamond Club pass, which I've never been to before, and was thoroughly underwhelmed by the experience. The Club itself is basically a Mets-themed Ground Round with a ridiculously long wait (30 minutes? Really? For chicken fingers?). The Mets' "Hall of Fame" is even worse- the busts are great but I think my parents did a better job displaying my CYO swimming trophies. They couldn't dedicate a wall or anything? I know the building's getting torn down this year, but they've been there for forty years. Shameful. I hope the Wilpons planned on a little something more to put in their great monument to Dodger history. We'll see.
Okay, for the AL pitchers:
Starters
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lee 13/9.9/41.4/182
Halladay 13/9.1/39.1/151
Duchsherer 11/7.3/38.8/210
Danks 10/8.2/36.2/162
Saunders 12/6.8/25.2/134
Hernandez 10/7.6/25.5/134
Santana 10/6.6/27.9/123
Marcum 9/6.0/29.3/154
Greinke 10/6.5/26.6/123
Lester 9/4.9/26.2/128
Matsuzaka 8/5.7/24.8/163
Lackey 9/4.6/23.5/167
Harden 8/4.3/25.6/164
Galarraga 8/4.6/14.3/127
Pettitte 8/6.2/14.0/101
Guthrie 8/5.4/22.9/120
Sabathia 8/6.5/19.4/110
Floyd 9/4.5/9.5/119
The first two are easy, after that it's a toss-up. I'll go with Joe Saunders' Win Shares, and Justin Duchscherer's and John Danks' VORP and ERA+.
Starting Pitchers
Starter: Cliff Lee
Reserve #1: Roy Halladay
Reserve #2: Justin Duchscherer
Reserve #3: John Danks
Reserve #4: Joe Saunders
Relievers
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Rivera 10/9.8/20.0/384
Soria 9/7.0/17.5/292
Nathan 7/6.4/18.5/348
Rodriguez 7/6.9/13.7/175
Mahay 7/4.0/17.1/233
Papelbon 7/5.3/8.2/178
Jenks 6/4.8/12.2/222
Chamberlain* 6/4.2/18.1/156
Downs 6/3.4/17.3/242
Howell 6/3.3/13.6/153
*- now starting
Not a huge surprise that Mariano Freaking Rivera makes the team. Pretty huge surprise that Kansas City has the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the majors.
Starter (Closer?): Mariano Rivera
Reserve: Joakim Soria
And that'll do it for the AL team. Hopefully I can finish up the NL team before the break is over.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Friday, July 11, 2008
2008 ASG, National League
I'll get to the pitchers sometime this weekend, the position players are more fun to do.
Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Soto 12/8.5/28.4/.307/133
McCann 12/8.2/29.3/.307/138
Martin 11/7.9/28.0/.303/121
Kendall 11/6.1/4.4/.260/83
Doumit 10/5.1/21.3/.331/145
Wow, that's a coin toss. I'm gonna give it to Soto on his sliver-thin edge in WARP3, but that could really go either way. Russ Martin's also not very far behind, and Ryan Doumit would be right there if he had more plate appearances.
Starter: Geovany Soto
Reserve: Brian McCann
First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Berkman 21/11.7/62.3/.366/190
Pujols 15/9.9/48.1/.373/185
Gonzalez 14/7.5/25.1/.309/133
Teixiera 9/7.0/23.1/.301/131
Fielder 11/5.8/18.6/.294/118
Lee 8/7.2/27.1/.301/127
Jackson 10/5.3/20.5/.296/120
Is Lance Berkman even playing the same sport as everyone else? I mean, he's practically lapping Albert freaking Pujols! Yowza.
Starter: Lance Berkman
Reserve: Albert Pujols
Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Utley 15/12.3/42.4/.330/147
Uggla 16/10.5/38.6/.337/160
Hudson 11/7.2/19.4/.283/111
Phillips 10/6.8/23.4/.291/111
DeRosa 9/8.1/18.1/.293/115
Utley edges Uggla for the best National League East second baseman with a last name that starts with a U award. And the all-star spot.
Starter: Chase Utley
Reserve: Dan Uggla
Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Jones 14/10.7/53.7/.371/190
Ramirez 13/7.5/25.1/.307/132
Wright 11/8.4/31.3/.318/139
Glaus 11/7.4/13.4/.293/114
Cantu 9/5.6/17.9/.286/115
Man, Larry's having a huge year. Ramirez is gonna edge Wright due to David's slumping season in the field (-3 FRAA, 1.0 fielding Win Share). I hope he can make it in as a DH.
Starter: Chipper Jones
Reserve: Aramis Ramirez
Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Ramirez 14/10.5/54.8/.314/154
Reyes 12/9.6/37.8/.303/125
Guzman 14/6.2/24.6/.272/102
Tejada 9/6.6/16.5/.263/97
Hardy 6/7.9/26.8/.301/123
Furcal 9/4.5/26.5/.363/170
Rollins 8/4.7/20.2/.283/97
First Met to make the team! Hanley Ramirez is having an incredible year, and has apparently drastically improved his D. Reyes edges Christian Guzman, despite Guzman's fantastic year defensively. Furcal, off his torrid start, breaks into the list with only 154 PA's.
Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Reserve: Jose Reyes
Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
McLouth 18/7.9/34.0/.324/138
Beltran 15/6.9/26.7/.301/122
Rowand 9/6.9/18.9/.288/115
Ankiel 8/5.0/20.2/.300/124
Kemp 9/5.9/14.4/.277/98
Ross 6/6.2/16.7/.296/121
Another Met makes the cut! Pretty shallow field here, at least when compared to the AL. McLouth takes the starting spot, easily, and Beltran continues to have fantastic years under the radar.
Starter: Nate McLouth
Reserve: Carlos Beltran
Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Nady 12/8.8/25.6/.331/140
Ludwick 12/8.2/25.6/.323/143
Hart 14/6.2/20.3/.296/118
Giles 9/7.0/19.9/.313/128
Winn 11/6.7/14.1/.286/102
That's basically a three way tie. I'm going with Nady because of his lead in WARP3, and Ludwick because of his offensive numbers but this could go any way between the three of em.
Starter: Xavier Nady
Reserve: Ryan Ludwick
Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Burrell 16/8.9/36.5/.338/155
Holliday 14/7.8/40.3/.338/152
Bay 17/7.4/32.7/.338/143
Braun 14/8.2/25.8/.300/126
Dunn 13/8.0/22.0/.316/133
Lee 13/5.6/28.7/.303/133
Wow, didn't realize how loaded left field is in the NL this year. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Pat Burrell, who apparently plays a better left field than Matt Holliday.
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Matt Holliday
Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bay 32.7/.338/143
Wright 31.3/.318/139
Dunn 22.0/.316/133
Gonzalez 25.1/.309/133
Lee 28.7/.303/133
Teixeira 23.1/.301/131
Giles 19.9/.313/128
Lee 27.1/.301/127
Braun 25.8/.300/126
Ankiel 20.2/.300/124
Well, Bay shouldn't start if Holliday doesn't, so the actual starters will be:
Left field
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Jason Bay
Designated Hitter
Starter: Matt Holliday
Reserve: David Wright
And that's the third Met to make the team, although none of them are starters.
Hopefully I can get to the pitchers on Sunday. Won't be writing anything tomorrow since I'll be at Shea in field box seats I got from a friend at work. Hopefully Pedro will catch whatever bug all the other pitchers have had lately and shut down the Rox.
Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Soto 12/8.5/28.4/.307/133
McCann 12/8.2/29.3/.307/138
Martin 11/7.9/28.0/.303/121
Kendall 11/6.1/4.4/.260/83
Doumit 10/5.1/21.3/.331/145
Wow, that's a coin toss. I'm gonna give it to Soto on his sliver-thin edge in WARP3, but that could really go either way. Russ Martin's also not very far behind, and Ryan Doumit would be right there if he had more plate appearances.
Starter: Geovany Soto
Reserve: Brian McCann
First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Berkman 21/11.7/62.3/.366/190
Pujols 15/9.9/48.1/.373/185
Gonzalez 14/7.5/25.1/.309/133
Teixiera 9/7.0/23.1/.301/131
Fielder 11/5.8/18.6/.294/118
Lee 8/7.2/27.1/.301/127
Jackson 10/5.3/20.5/.296/120
Is Lance Berkman even playing the same sport as everyone else? I mean, he's practically lapping Albert freaking Pujols! Yowza.
Starter: Lance Berkman
Reserve: Albert Pujols
Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Utley 15/12.3/42.4/.330/147
Uggla 16/10.5/38.6/.337/160
Hudson 11/7.2/19.4/.283/111
Phillips 10/6.8/23.4/.291/111
DeRosa 9/8.1/18.1/.293/115
Utley edges Uggla for the best National League East second baseman with a last name that starts with a U award. And the all-star spot.
Starter: Chase Utley
Reserve: Dan Uggla
Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Jones 14/10.7/53.7/.371/190
Ramirez 13/7.5/25.1/.307/132
Wright 11/8.4/31.3/.318/139
Glaus 11/7.4/13.4/.293/114
Cantu 9/5.6/17.9/.286/115
Man, Larry's having a huge year. Ramirez is gonna edge Wright due to David's slumping season in the field (-3 FRAA, 1.0 fielding Win Share). I hope he can make it in as a DH.
Starter: Chipper Jones
Reserve: Aramis Ramirez
Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Ramirez 14/10.5/54.8/.314/154
Reyes 12/9.6/37.8/.303/125
Guzman 14/6.2/24.6/.272/102
Tejada 9/6.6/16.5/.263/97
Hardy 6/7.9/26.8/.301/123
Furcal 9/4.5/26.5/.363/170
Rollins 8/4.7/20.2/.283/97
First Met to make the team! Hanley Ramirez is having an incredible year, and has apparently drastically improved his D. Reyes edges Christian Guzman, despite Guzman's fantastic year defensively. Furcal, off his torrid start, breaks into the list with only 154 PA's.
Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Reserve: Jose Reyes
Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
McLouth 18/7.9/34.0/.324/138
Beltran 15/6.9/26.7/.301/122
Rowand 9/6.9/18.9/.288/115
Ankiel 8/5.0/20.2/.300/124
Kemp 9/5.9/14.4/.277/98
Ross 6/6.2/16.7/.296/121
Another Met makes the cut! Pretty shallow field here, at least when compared to the AL. McLouth takes the starting spot, easily, and Beltran continues to have fantastic years under the radar.
Starter: Nate McLouth
Reserve: Carlos Beltran
Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Nady 12/8.8/25.6/.331/140
Ludwick 12/8.2/25.6/.323/143
Hart 14/6.2/20.3/.296/118
Giles 9/7.0/19.9/.313/128
Winn 11/6.7/14.1/.286/102
That's basically a three way tie. I'm going with Nady because of his lead in WARP3, and Ludwick because of his offensive numbers but this could go any way between the three of em.
Starter: Xavier Nady
Reserve: Ryan Ludwick
Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Burrell 16/8.9/36.5/.338/155
Holliday 14/7.8/40.3/.338/152
Bay 17/7.4/32.7/.338/143
Braun 14/8.2/25.8/.300/126
Dunn 13/8.0/22.0/.316/133
Lee 13/5.6/28.7/.303/133
Wow, didn't realize how loaded left field is in the NL this year. I'm gonna give the slight edge to Pat Burrell, who apparently plays a better left field than Matt Holliday.
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Matt Holliday
Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bay 32.7/.338/143
Wright 31.3/.318/139
Dunn 22.0/.316/133
Gonzalez 25.1/.309/133
Lee 28.7/.303/133
Teixeira 23.1/.301/131
Giles 19.9/.313/128
Lee 27.1/.301/127
Braun 25.8/.300/126
Ankiel 20.2/.300/124
Well, Bay shouldn't start if Holliday doesn't, so the actual starters will be:
Left field
Starter: Pat Burrell
Reserve: Jason Bay
Designated Hitter
Starter: Matt Holliday
Reserve: David Wright
And that's the third Met to make the team, although none of them are starters.
Hopefully I can get to the pitchers on Sunday. Won't be writing anything tomorrow since I'll be at Shea in field box seats I got from a friend at work. Hopefully Pedro will catch whatever bug all the other pitchers have had lately and shut down the Rox.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Enjoy it while it lasts?
I'm gonna take a break from my all-star project (woof, that first list took a long time to put together) to comment on the state of the Mets.
After shutting down the Giants for the second straight day, the Mets now sit only a game and a half out of first with a +24 run differential. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds has them in a virtual dead heat with the Phils to win the division. With John Maine on the mound today against the best move the Mets didn't make and the awful Rockies coming into town, the good guys have a decent chance to be in first place by the All-Star break. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this team.
However, I do not believe that this team, as presently constructed, has any real chance of sustaining success for the rest of the season. The team's recent surge, during which they've gone 7-2, has been fueled largely by surprise contributions from Endy Chavez (.395 OBP over that span), Fernando Tatis (.500 OBP and .833 SLG), and Damion Easley (.410 OBP). These three will not be able to sustain anywhere near this level of production. Perhaps Easley might be able to produce consistently better than Castillo, but the team can't expect him to hit like Uggla or Utley for very long. Chavez is so good defensively (21 FRAR), that he is worth starting as long as he hits at replacement level, but he's a career .312 OBP, .370 SLG hitter. Tatis has raised his season numbers to .288/.324/.414, but clutch performance aside, that's still not nearly enough for a poor defensive corner outfielder. The three have combined for a .435 BABiP over the last 9 games, which will regress to the mean with a vengeance any day now; leaving the team with a very underwhelming lineup.
Don't get me wrong, there have been some very nice developments over the past week and a half- the improvement of the starting pitching, especially Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Delgado's reemergence (.393/.438/.714 over the last week), and a big time series win in Philly that puts the Mets up 7-3 head-to-head for the season; but if this team does not make a move to improve its offense in at least one corner outfield spot they will not be able to sustain this success.
In 2004, the Mets were a half-dozen games out of first when they made the trades for Zambrano and Benson. The trades, one disastrous and one pretty good (thank you, Johnny Maine!), didn't come close to pushing the team over the top because the team wasn't as near to the top as they they looked (not that 6 games at the all-star break is very close). Over the first four months of 2004, the Mets were -3 in run differential. This year, the Mets have a much better differential, but they're +24 only after going +31 in their last 9 games. In the other 82, they've been -7. This temporary offensive surge has put the Mets in a good position to make a playoff run, but they will need another bat to take the division.
That bat probably won't come from within the organization. Ryan Church might be back in a few weeks, but he might miss the rest of the year. (Right now, if you told me he'd miss the rest of this season but he'd be fine the rest of his career, I'd sign up for that on the spot.) Moises Alou will not be healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. The team's prospects (Evans, Carp, Martinez, et al) don't seem ready for the bigs yet, and as much a Val Pascucci fan I am, he's not enough by himself to swing the division New York's way. Angel Pagan has started his rehab games, but I'm not sold that he's much more than a fourth outfielder.
The Mets need to add at least a league average outfielder to stay in this race. Whether that player is Bonds, Lofton, Ibanez, Dunn, Nady or someone else, they need to get him soon. They need to add him before regression grabs hold of this team.
In 2004, the team mistakenly believed it was a contender and made two trade deadline moves that hurt the team in the long run (as much as I love him, Maine < Kazmir) without helping it enough in the short run. In 2008, the Mets are much closer to being a playoff team, but they'll probably only get there if they make a move.
After shutting down the Giants for the second straight day, the Mets now sit only a game and a half out of first with a +24 run differential. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds has them in a virtual dead heat with the Phils to win the division. With John Maine on the mound today against the best move the Mets didn't make and the awful Rockies coming into town, the good guys have a decent chance to be in first place by the All-Star break. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this team.
However, I do not believe that this team, as presently constructed, has any real chance of sustaining success for the rest of the season. The team's recent surge, during which they've gone 7-2, has been fueled largely by surprise contributions from Endy Chavez (.395 OBP over that span), Fernando Tatis (.500 OBP and .833 SLG), and Damion Easley (.410 OBP). These three will not be able to sustain anywhere near this level of production. Perhaps Easley might be able to produce consistently better than Castillo, but the team can't expect him to hit like Uggla or Utley for very long. Chavez is so good defensively (21 FRAR), that he is worth starting as long as he hits at replacement level, but he's a career .312 OBP, .370 SLG hitter. Tatis has raised his season numbers to .288/.324/.414, but clutch performance aside, that's still not nearly enough for a poor defensive corner outfielder. The three have combined for a .435 BABiP over the last 9 games, which will regress to the mean with a vengeance any day now; leaving the team with a very underwhelming lineup.
Don't get me wrong, there have been some very nice developments over the past week and a half- the improvement of the starting pitching, especially Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Delgado's reemergence (.393/.438/.714 over the last week), and a big time series win in Philly that puts the Mets up 7-3 head-to-head for the season; but if this team does not make a move to improve its offense in at least one corner outfield spot they will not be able to sustain this success.
In 2004, the Mets were a half-dozen games out of first when they made the trades for Zambrano and Benson. The trades, one disastrous and one pretty good (thank you, Johnny Maine!), didn't come close to pushing the team over the top because the team wasn't as near to the top as they they looked (not that 6 games at the all-star break is very close). Over the first four months of 2004, the Mets were -3 in run differential. This year, the Mets have a much better differential, but they're +24 only after going +31 in their last 9 games. In the other 82, they've been -7. This temporary offensive surge has put the Mets in a good position to make a playoff run, but they will need another bat to take the division.
That bat probably won't come from within the organization. Ryan Church might be back in a few weeks, but he might miss the rest of the year. (Right now, if you told me he'd miss the rest of this season but he'd be fine the rest of his career, I'd sign up for that on the spot.) Moises Alou will not be healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. The team's prospects (Evans, Carp, Martinez, et al) don't seem ready for the bigs yet, and as much a Val Pascucci fan I am, he's not enough by himself to swing the division New York's way. Angel Pagan has started his rehab games, but I'm not sold that he's much more than a fourth outfielder.
The Mets need to add at least a league average outfielder to stay in this race. Whether that player is Bonds, Lofton, Ibanez, Dunn, Nady or someone else, they need to get him soon. They need to add him before regression grabs hold of this team.
In 2004, the team mistakenly believed it was a contender and made two trade deadline moves that hurt the team in the long run (as much as I love him, Maine < Kazmir) without helping it enough in the short run. In 2008, the Mets are much closer to being a playoff team, but they'll probably only get there if they make a move.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
2008 ASG, American Style
Okie dokie, I'll get right to it.
Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Mauer 13/8.9/27.8/.328/138
Suzuki 9/8.9/6.0/.267/96
Navarro 9/7.4/13.9/.300/119
Buck 8/2.6/0.4/.255/85
Pierzynski 6/4.3/13.3/.268/102
Well, Joe Mauer really jumps off the page here. He's got a huge lead in Win Shares and is dominating the offensive stats. Kurt Suzuki is giving up a lot of ground to Dioner Navarro at the plate, but it seems his defense more than makes up the difference. It's mighty close, but I'll give Suzuki the nod.
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserve: Kurt Suzuki
First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Youkilis 14/8.0/29.5/.317/141
Morneau 15/8.0/26.3/.318/136
Giambi 8/6.1/25.6/.323/148
Cabrera 9/5.5/23.2/.297/126
Pena 8/5.0/6.9/.290/119
Kotchman 10/4.6/12.7/.276/105
Yikes, this is a close one. Youkilis and Morneau are neck and neck here, but I'm giving it to the Greek God of Walks based on his edge in VORP and OPS+.
Starter: Kevin Youkilis
Reserve: Justin Morneau
Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Kinsler 16/10.8/49.7/.338/153
Roberts 14/9.6/30.8/.310/130
Ellis 11/8.9/10.1/.286/106
Iwamura 10/7.2/8.7/.280/98
Pedroia 9/8.4/25.9/.294/113
Pretty easy to pick em here, but I did not realize just how big a year Kinsler's having. Those are MVP-type numbers.
Starter: Ian Kinsler
Reserve: Brian Roberts
Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Rodriguez 12/8.4/38.2/.342/166
Longoria 9/10.3/23.8/.323/136
Lowell 9/7.4/19.1/.302/126
Guillen 9/6.6/17.4/.290/116
Blake 10/4.3/13.3/.288/110
Crede 9/5.8/11.7/.282/116
Vazquez 8/4.3/16.0/.310/133
Figgins 9/2.4/4.1/.271/90
No surprise who's getting the start here. A-Rod's a step above Evan Longoria, who's a step above everyone else. Interestingly, this is a really tight group by Win Shares, but not anything else.
Starter: Alex Rodriguez
Reserve: Evan Longoria
Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Young 10/8.8/21.7/.284/106
Cabrera 9/7.3/10.9/.255/82
Peralta 6/6.5/14.6/.269/97
Crosby 7/5.3/8.3/.262/92
Jeter 7/3.7/17.0/.271/98
Woof, not a great year for shortstops in the AL. Young is the only one who would warrant consideration in the NL.
Starter: Michael Young
Reserve: Orlando Cabrera
Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Upton 14/10.0/23.7/.314/120
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Hunter 11/7.0/17.8/.280/109
Suzuki 9/7.5/22.5/.292/101
Centerfield, however, is loaded. Leaving one of those top three out is hard, but I'm gonna go with BJ Upton's big lead in WARP3 and Josh Hamilton's slightly better offense. Grady Sizemore goes back into the pool of available outfielders.
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Markakis 12/9.4/26.9/.314/136
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Hinske 9/5.6/16.9/.317/134
Hinske's only played 35 games in right this year, and only has about 250 PA so far, so I'm not really considering him. Vlad and Mags both trail the leaders in WARP3, so they're out. JD Drew has been the best offensive player, but it looks like Nick Markakis' D makes up the difference. Jermaine Dye's a close third.
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: JD Drew
Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Damon 14/7.0/26.7/.306/130
Ramirez 12/6.1/25.9/.307/129
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Quentin 12/6.0/23.2/.301/130
Dejesus 12/5.6/20.0/.301/124
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Since Win Shares, WARP3, and VORP are all affected by which position a player fields, I'm going to weigh EQA and OPS+ heavier than for the other positions. Even still, it Sizemore and Dye have been the two best remaining outfielders. However, since neither was one of the top two at their positions, neither should start. So, for the starting left field position, the choice comes down to:
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
I'm giving JD Drew the nod. The revised outfield looks like this:
Centerfield
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: Jermaine Dye
Left Field
Starter: JD Drew
Reserve: Grady Sizemore
Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bradley 41.0/.357/177
Giambi 25.6/.323/148
Hamilton 34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 38.5/.320/139
Damon 26.7/.306/130
Huff 27.9/.304/131
I got rid of the "overall game" numbers because, well, it's the DH. Milton Bradley saves me from having to revise my outfield again. Also: wow.
Starter: Milton Bradley
Reserve: Jason Giambi
Well, I'm too pooped to tackle the pitchers right now. I'm also watching The Great Johan as he tries not to get shown up by Mike Pelfrey. Let's go Mets.
Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Mauer 13/8.9/27.8/.328/138
Suzuki 9/8.9/6.0/.267/96
Navarro 9/7.4/13.9/.300/119
Buck 8/2.6/0.4/.255/85
Pierzynski 6/4.3/13.3/.268/102
Well, Joe Mauer really jumps off the page here. He's got a huge lead in Win Shares and is dominating the offensive stats. Kurt Suzuki is giving up a lot of ground to Dioner Navarro at the plate, but it seems his defense more than makes up the difference. It's mighty close, but I'll give Suzuki the nod.
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserve: Kurt Suzuki
First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Youkilis 14/8.0/29.5/.317/141
Morneau 15/8.0/26.3/.318/136
Giambi 8/6.1/25.6/.323/148
Cabrera 9/5.5/23.2/.297/126
Pena 8/5.0/6.9/.290/119
Kotchman 10/4.6/12.7/.276/105
Yikes, this is a close one. Youkilis and Morneau are neck and neck here, but I'm giving it to the Greek God of Walks based on his edge in VORP and OPS+.
Starter: Kevin Youkilis
Reserve: Justin Morneau
Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Kinsler 16/10.8/49.7/.338/153
Roberts 14/9.6/30.8/.310/130
Ellis 11/8.9/10.1/.286/106
Iwamura 10/7.2/8.7/.280/98
Pedroia 9/8.4/25.9/.294/113
Pretty easy to pick em here, but I did not realize just how big a year Kinsler's having. Those are MVP-type numbers.
Starter: Ian Kinsler
Reserve: Brian Roberts
Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Rodriguez 12/8.4/38.2/.342/166
Longoria 9/10.3/23.8/.323/136
Lowell 9/7.4/19.1/.302/126
Guillen 9/6.6/17.4/.290/116
Blake 10/4.3/13.3/.288/110
Crede 9/5.8/11.7/.282/116
Vazquez 8/4.3/16.0/.310/133
Figgins 9/2.4/4.1/.271/90
No surprise who's getting the start here. A-Rod's a step above Evan Longoria, who's a step above everyone else. Interestingly, this is a really tight group by Win Shares, but not anything else.
Starter: Alex Rodriguez
Reserve: Evan Longoria
Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Young 10/8.8/21.7/.284/106
Cabrera 9/7.3/10.9/.255/82
Peralta 6/6.5/14.6/.269/97
Crosby 7/5.3/8.3/.262/92
Jeter 7/3.7/17.0/.271/98
Woof, not a great year for shortstops in the AL. Young is the only one who would warrant consideration in the NL.
Starter: Michael Young
Reserve: Orlando Cabrera
Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Upton 14/10.0/23.7/.314/120
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Hunter 11/7.0/17.8/.280/109
Suzuki 9/7.5/22.5/.292/101
Centerfield, however, is loaded. Leaving one of those top three out is hard, but I'm gonna go with BJ Upton's big lead in WARP3 and Josh Hamilton's slightly better offense. Grady Sizemore goes back into the pool of available outfielders.
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Markakis 12/9.4/26.9/.314/136
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Hinske 9/5.6/16.9/.317/134
Hinske's only played 35 games in right this year, and only has about 250 PA so far, so I'm not really considering him. Vlad and Mags both trail the leaders in WARP3, so they're out. JD Drew has been the best offensive player, but it looks like Nick Markakis' D makes up the difference. Jermaine Dye's a close third.
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: JD Drew
Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Damon 14/7.0/26.7/.306/130
Ramirez 12/6.1/25.9/.307/129
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Quentin 12/6.0/23.2/.301/130
Dejesus 12/5.6/20.0/.301/124
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Since Win Shares, WARP3, and VORP are all affected by which position a player fields, I'm going to weigh EQA and OPS+ heavier than for the other positions. Even still, it Sizemore and Dye have been the two best remaining outfielders. However, since neither was one of the top two at their positions, neither should start. So, for the starting left field position, the choice comes down to:
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
I'm giving JD Drew the nod. The revised outfield looks like this:
Centerfield
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: Jermaine Dye
Left Field
Starter: JD Drew
Reserve: Grady Sizemore
Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bradley 41.0/.357/177
Giambi 25.6/.323/148
Hamilton 34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 38.5/.320/139
Damon 26.7/.306/130
Huff 27.9/.304/131
I got rid of the "overall game" numbers because, well, it's the DH. Milton Bradley saves me from having to revise my outfield again. Also: wow.
Starter: Milton Bradley
Reserve: Jason Giambi
Well, I'm too pooped to tackle the pitchers right now. I'm also watching The Great Johan as he tries not to get shown up by Mike Pelfrey. Let's go Mets.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
2008 All Star Game
In honor of the upcoming all-star game (it's at Yankee Stadium, if you hadn't heard), and the various crimes against baseball humanity inherent to the selection process, for my inaugural post I'll be selecting my very own all-star roster. How novel!
(For the record, I intend this blog to be Mets-centric eventually, but watching these games lately has been too much like HALO jumping for me to comment rationally on them.)
So, first I'll have to establish my personal criteria for selection.
First off, and many (read: most) people will disagree with me, I think the all-star game should reward the players that have had the best season so far. I understand that this insures that some wacky 3 month wonders will make the team every year, but if you're going to have your selection process end in the middle of the season you should expect this. There are a slew of end-of-the-year awards handed out after the season to reward players who have performed the best over 162 games and the best players over the course of several years will probably be honored by the Hall of Fame. It's very difficult to weigh a player's contribution over a few seasons versus another's contribution to the current year, so to avoid nebulous decisions over whether or not a player is a bigger "star" than another, I'll stick to a merit-based first half performance ranking.
Next, to standardize the rosters, I'll be taking two players from every field position except left field. The way I figure it, any right or center fielder could play left if they needed to; so I'll try to avoid penalizing a player for having too much defensive value to play left by taking, as my left fielders, the two best remaining outfielders, wherever they may play. The two DH selections will simply be the two best remaining hitters, regardless of position. As for the pitchers, I see no reason to select 12 for a single game (especially one featuring a DH). I'll be picking the five best starters and the two best relievers (not necessarily closers). So each roster will have:
2 Catchers
2 First basemen
2 Second basemen
2 Third basemen
2 Shortstops
2 Center fielders
2 Right fielders
2 Outfielders
2 Designated hitters
5 Starting pitchers
2 Relief pitchers
I'll be using mostly Baseball Prospectus' WARP3 and The Hardball Times' Win Shares to evaluate these players, with consideration given to BP's VORP and EQA and Baseball Reference's OPS+ for the hitters and VORP (again), and BR's ERA+ for the pitchers.
Finally, none of this every team gets an all-star crap. My team is merit-based only.
I'm excited. This should be fun and educational. Yippee!
(For the record, I intend this blog to be Mets-centric eventually, but watching these games lately has been too much like HALO jumping for me to comment rationally on them.)
So, first I'll have to establish my personal criteria for selection.
First off, and many (read: most) people will disagree with me, I think the all-star game should reward the players that have had the best season so far. I understand that this insures that some wacky 3 month wonders will make the team every year, but if you're going to have your selection process end in the middle of the season you should expect this. There are a slew of end-of-the-year awards handed out after the season to reward players who have performed the best over 162 games and the best players over the course of several years will probably be honored by the Hall of Fame. It's very difficult to weigh a player's contribution over a few seasons versus another's contribution to the current year, so to avoid nebulous decisions over whether or not a player is a bigger "star" than another, I'll stick to a merit-based first half performance ranking.
Next, to standardize the rosters, I'll be taking two players from every field position except left field. The way I figure it, any right or center fielder could play left if they needed to; so I'll try to avoid penalizing a player for having too much defensive value to play left by taking, as my left fielders, the two best remaining outfielders, wherever they may play. The two DH selections will simply be the two best remaining hitters, regardless of position. As for the pitchers, I see no reason to select 12 for a single game (especially one featuring a DH). I'll be picking the five best starters and the two best relievers (not necessarily closers). So each roster will have:
2 Catchers
2 First basemen
2 Second basemen
2 Third basemen
2 Shortstops
2 Center fielders
2 Right fielders
2 Outfielders
2 Designated hitters
5 Starting pitchers
2 Relief pitchers
I'll be using mostly Baseball Prospectus' WARP3 and The Hardball Times' Win Shares to evaluate these players, with consideration given to BP's VORP and EQA and Baseball Reference's OPS+ for the hitters and VORP (again), and BR's ERA+ for the pitchers.
Finally, none of this every team gets an all-star crap. My team is merit-based only.
I'm excited. This should be fun and educational. Yippee!
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