Tick tick tick

As the trade deadline looms, it looks like the Marlins are about to add Manny Ramirez after taking two of three from the good guys down in Miami while Philly beat up on the Nats to retake the lead in the East. I'm certain that some fans' panic buttons are getting smashed right now, but I don't think the Mets are in a bad position. The bullpen didn't look very good down in Florida (I dread watching games in Dolphin Stadium. Something about that place makes me always assume something terrible is about to happen to the Mets), but they've had to shoulder a lot of innings since Brandon Knight's start on Saturday. When your starters aren't making it out of the fifth inning 3 out of 5 games, including one 14 inning disaster, you can expect your relief pitchers to give up a few runs. There's no need to panic and trade away the farm for some overpriced, overrated relief pitcher. While I worry that the pen has too many LOOGYs and ROOGYs right now, the cost of relievers is as high as it's gonna get. I'd look into someone who's considered a middle of the bullpen kind of guy, but Omar has to stay away from closers.

John Maine has a strained rotator cuff. This is very bad news, and I just hope the Mets do the right thing and let him sit out a few starts before this situation becomes Ryan Church version 2.0, and we start worrying about a young player's career. Pedro's coming back, and for better or worse, he can take Maine's spot in the rotation for a few turns. A few off days coming up also means that if they wanted to, the team could sit Maine for two weeks with only two starts coming form the Claudio Vargases or the Nelson Figeroas of the system. This'll be a tight race, and those two starts might mean the difference between making the playoffs or not, but this is a 27 year old pitcher's career at stake. There are Mets rumors involving Jarrod Washburn and, god help us, Livan "1.63 WHIP" Hernandez. Omar has to pass on pitchers of that caliber. Washburn because he'll cost too much for what he's worth and Hernandez because, simply, he's the worst pitcher in the majors.

Supposedly, the Mariners are asking for Jon Niese and another prospect in exchange for Raul Ibanez. Pass. Niese is going to be an important part of this team's rotation from 2010 onward, and Ibanez's good offense is tempered by his -10 FRAA (-55 for his career). There are two below-average left fielders available that hit much better than Ibanez. One has a career 1.051 OPS and wouldn't require any prospects to acquire. The other has a career 0.903 OPS and might be cheaper to trade for than Ibanez. It doesn't appear that many teams are all that interested in Adam Dunn, which could definitely work to the Mets' advantage, and his low batting average probably also lowers his value. If the Mets can get him while keeping Fernando Martinez, Jon Niese and Wilmer Flores, I'd do it in a second. Dunn's a better hitter than Ibanez, he's been better in the field this year (+2 FRAA), and the Mets could shift him to first next year if they resign him. As for Bonds, well, right or wrong that's just not gonna happen.

The Marlins' pending acquisition of Manny Ramirez really doesn't scare me all that much. Manny's had a 7.8 WARP3 this year versus Jeremy Hermida's 4.6, but overall the Marlins have been outscored by their opponents by 31 runs. The trade, if it happens, probably would only take them from a team that should win 77 games to a team that should win 81. Even with the 57 wins they've already banked this year, I'd be surprised if they win 30 more the rest of the way. The Mets' strongest competition will continue to be the Phillies and their +73 run differential.

The key to this deadline for Omar will be to avoid panicking. The Mets are only a half game out of first and have as good a shot, if not better, as the Phillies or Marlins at making the playoffs. The team's farm system, a joke at the beginning of the year, has taken a big step forward this season. If Omar doesn't do something rash today, the franchise has a good chance at becoming a perpetual contender. If he empties out the system again, the team might be looking at a Steve Phillips-esque dead end.

Ollie & Delgado

Yesterday, the Mets put themselves into first place (solo edition) off another brilliant performance by Phillie Killer® Oliver Perez, and a clutch hit by the resurgent Carlos Delgado. The two biggest pariahs of the Willie Randolph administration are now the two biggest heroes of the Jerry Manuel campaign. Over the past 28 days, Carlos Delgado is hitting to a .368/.467/.736 tune, while Oliver Perez has a 1.33 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP, and a 39/12 K/BB ratio. Where both seemed headed for the scrap heap a few weeks ago, now both are making their cases for the Mets to consider bringing them back for 2009.

What's gotten into these two? Did Jerry Manuel find the switch on their backs and turn it from "Sux!" to "Rox!"?

Well, Delgado had been hitting into a significant bit of bad luck this year, with his 22% LD rate only resulting in a .280 BABiP, and Oliver Perez's recent surge may have a lot to do with his 3 starts against the Phillies and Yankees, two teams that always have difficulty hitting him (for his career, the Yanks are hitting .199/.293/.315. against him and the Phils are .204/.351/.335). There seems, however, to be something different at play here than simple luck of the draw.

Delgado's luck hasn't really improved all that much- while his LD% has increased to 23.4%, his BABiP is still .282. Perez may have beaten the lefty-susceptible Yanks and Phils, but he's also had starts against both Colorado and Cincinnati, two teams that have hit well against lefties this year. Has Delgado figured out the strikeout bug that plagued him the first half of the year? Has Perez gotten over the mental blocks that normally eat him up when he's pitching against the Colorados and Cinncinatis of the league? How much of their success is due to the Randolph/Peterson firings? Any of it?

I really don't know. I suspect both will continue to have excellent second halves, if not quite this good. The franchise will have to make decisions on whether to try to bring these two back for next season. Both will cost an extravagant amount of money next year. I hope both Ollie and Carlos make Omar's decisions very difficult.

Blarrrgh!

It was only one game.

It sure doesn't feel like it, but it was only one game.

That doesn't make me feel much better today after watching the baseball equivalent of the vomit comet, the 2008 New York Mets, invent a new way to lose a game. Give up 6 runs in the top of the 9th? No problem. Go get 'em, Duaner. Smith! What the hell were doing out there? Thank god Jose bailed you out. Pedro, go get this thing back on track. There you go. That's how you do it.

But it was only one game. I just wish my guts would realize that.

The Subtle Art of Passing

Back before I was a fat guy, I used to be a pretty good cross country runner. I wasn't naturally the fastest, so I had to work a lot more to achieve the same results as other runners. One thing I had going in my favor, however, was the ability to hold a pace precisely. I'd often lead quarters (400 meters) without a watch and be able to tell how fast I'd ran within a second. On race day, when everyone else would let adrenaline take over at the starting line, I'd let the lead pack take off while I kept my goal-pace, knowing I'd be able to catch back up to them as the race went on. Because of this, I spent most of my races passing other runners as they faded.

There's a lot that goes into passing another runner; perhaps not as much as Zeno suggested, but there is a good amount of psychology at play. When you can see the runner ahead of you, you can establish a sort of "string" between you and him*. While catching up to a runner, I would imagine that I was reeling him in, steadily closing the gap between us. The idea of the "string" was a pretty powerful psychological tool for me and many other runners I'd talk to. It could help push you through a lot of pain to reach a goal. A lot of people's fastest races are spurred on by trying to "reel in" a faster opponent.

*- I'm using male pronouns for simplicity. I have been beaten by many women in mixed-sex races even when I used to run competitively; and if I took to the trail tomorrow, I'm sure that most grandmothers pushing baby-joggers would bury me.

Once I'd caught up to the runner I was chasing, I'd often "rest" just over their shoulder. This accomplishes two things: one, you get to run at a slower pace for a little while, allowing you to catch your breath and two, you get into the other runner's head. It's no fun having someone draft off of you- you can hear their breathing and footsteps as you are probably fading off your pace. You realize the person catching up to you probably has more in the tank than you do. It can throw you off your concentration and it just generally makes the race miserable. If I was feeling like being a real jerk, sometimes I'd even try to make small talk with the other runner to make it seem like I wasn't even starting to get tired.

Since no one can win a race being behind someone, and most of the time there'd be more than one person ahead of me, eventually I'd need to make my move to pass the runner I'd caught up to. This is the reason I'm writing this long, boring entry about my running strategies in a Mets-related blog. The key to passing someone in a race is to blow past them with an extended burst of speed. The idea is to get so far ahead of them so quickly that you snap the string between you and the person you're passing. If you can bury the other runner psychologically, you won't see them later in the race. If you pass someone at a slightly faster pace then they're keeping, it's a lot easier for them to keep up with you (which is why I'd pass teammates differently than opponents).

The Mets have caught up to the Phillies after reeling them in for a month. They've been sitting off their shoulder for about a week. Now the two teams are playing three games head to head, and each has a chance to strike a big psychological blow against the other. Of course, the impact of blowing past someone in a pennant race and in a cross country race is very different. A pennant race is spread over months rather than minutes and it involves dozens of psyches rather than the solo effort of running, but a sweep by either team would have a huge impact on the rest of the season.

Obviously, a three game lead in July is anything but insurmountable, and I have no clue how it would actually impact a clubhouse's attitude, but there's a big-time difference between being a game up on a team and three up on them. If the team in the lead plays .500 ball, a one game lead can disappear in a day, but a three game lead will last at least a week. If the Mets take two of the three, I'd be happy enough to have sole possession of first place; but if they can sweep Philly, a team that is 14-20 since June 9th, they could go a long way towards breaking the string.

Now if only that damn fish would stop making small talk.

The 66 Game Season

They did it.

They made it back to the top. They dug themselves a nice hole, but they fought their way back.

David Wright bounced a ball off some fat guy's chest and Delgado looped a game-winner to the opposite gap and the Mets erased the first 96 games of the season.

Now the 66 Game Season begins.

All that Willie Randolph stuff, the series in San Diego, those Wagner blown saves; none of it matters anymore. Spring Training just broke, and the Mets are playing in a two team division this year. If the Phils win 40, the Mets need to win 41. If the Phils win 33, the Mets need to win 34. That's all there is to it.

Let's Go Mets.

A Humble Proposal

Three days and no real games. It's funny how a winning streak affects a fan- I, for one, turn into a baseball crazed junkie, desperate to catch my next fix of Pelfrey dominating or Tatis driving in a game winner or even Delgado hitting a high fly over the wall. If you offered me a three day break after the San Diego San Disaster, I couldn't have taken it fast enough. Right now, I feel like Bob Saget in Half Baked; except for baseball, not coke. Okay, maybe not exactly like that, but close to it.

Anyway, with all this time between games I needed to work on my Mets-related fix somehow. What I came up with is a humble proposal for Citi Field, or more specifically, a section of the Citi Field parking lot.

So the Stadium I've grown up with is being torn down for a shiny new ballpark of the future of the past. I've come to grips with that. While there are a couple of reasons to like Shea without needing to put on Met-colored glasses (the sheer capacity of it, for one), the consensus among non-fans is that it's a bit of a dump. I may not agree with them, but there's really no sense in fighting the future at this point. I'm going to go to a few more games at the old purple monster, take lots of pictures, try to get everywhere I've never been, and generally enjoy it while I can.

I don't have much of a problem with them tearing Shea down after it closes, either. As we've seen with Tiger Stadium, leaving an old, dying stadium out to rot is just depressing. So tear it down, I say sadly. Unplug the the life support and allow Shea to be remembered in the shape it is today, rather than lurk over the shoulder of Citi Field, filling up with dust and weeds.

No, I don't have a problem with tearing down the building, but I do have a problem with what's happening to the field itself.

Check out this picture:

As you can see, the field itself is going to be replaced by a section of parking lot. That's it. That's it? The field of my childhood dreams? The field of the hopes of millions of fans? The source of our anxieties and elations? All that magic, all that belief and all that, um, Amazin-ness will be turned into asphalt and paint and oil stains? That's it?

As far as I can estimate from the picture above and this one, the section of parking lot replacing the field will hold about 400 cars, more or less. That's nothing to sneeze at. 400 spots at 15 dollars a piece (or whatever ungodly amount they'll be charging) for 81 games a year is about a half-million dollars worth of income for the team. That's enough to pay one rookie's salary. The location of these spots is also worth noting- they're some of the best spots in the lot.

I don't care. No way that field, the field that Seaver and Tug and Mookie and Doc and Fonzie and, heck, Timo called home should be turned into the land of car fires and fender benders and calling AAA because you left your keys in the ignition.

Here's my idea: turn those 400 parking spots into a picnic area. Let the grass continue to grow green on the place of our memories. Let fans grill dogs and listen to the pre-game on portable radios on Mr. Wilpon's front yard. Let kids play catch on the spots where their parents' and grandparents' heroes played. Put up statues of Ron Swoboda's and Endy Chavez's catches, of Mookie Wilson hustling out his ground ball, of Jesse Orosco kneeling, holding his arms over his head in a victorious 'V'. Plant a tree where robins can nest on the spot the Grand Slam Single came down. Heck, I'd love to see a little statue commemorating a certain cat.

It can be done- a nice, grassy, tree-shaded grove for the fans who loved Shea and their blue and orange clad descendants. There's been plenty of parking available, even during Citi Field's construction; and that was for a stadium with a much larger capacity. The new stadium will hold fewer fans and cost them more money than Shea. Give us something back, Fred.

Give us Shea Park.

NL All Star Pitchers

Didn't watch a full minute of the State Farm Home Run Derby brought to you by State Farm last night. For one thing, No Reservations was on (the TV show, not the Catherine Zeta Jones romcom), and I'm just about addicted to Anthony Bourdain's narrative. For another thing, I just couldn't stomach the thought of listening to Berman, Morgan and Phillips for how ever many hours the thing drags on. Also, and most importantly, I just don't care at all about glorified batting practice. Home runs are fun and all, but they're really exciting only in the context of the rest of the game. They change a game in one swing. They're a release from the tension built up from the batter and pitcher's cat and mouse game. They're an exclamation point in a sport of long, thoughtful sentences. They're not all that interesting on their own. The ball goes up, the ball comes down, it's like a driving range with more ads. Run it against a chance to ogle delicious looking Columbian street food, I know what I'm gonna watch every time, and it wasn't brought to me by State Farm.

Anyhoo, lemme finish up my NL All-Star team:

Starters
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lincecum 14/8.7/41.5/166
Volquez 12/9.1/37.2/195
Haren 13/7.8/37.5/166
Zambrano 14/7.6/36.8/157
Sheets 12/6.4/38.3/150
Hamels 11/8.3/39.4/140
Cook 12/8.0/30.4/129
Webb 11/7.5/28.0/140
Peavy 9/7.5/31.8/157
Santana 9/6.4/31.3/144
Dempster 10/6.0/28.0/137
Hudson 9/6.2/33.9/130
Jurrjens 9/5.2/27.6/136
Lohse 9/4.3/27.7/124

Really tough call for the final spot. The biggest gap between the two stat lines, as I see it, is Ben Sheets' 10% advantage in ERA+. A lot of deserving pitchers aren't gonna make the cut.

Starting Pitcher: Tim Lincecum
Reserve #1: Edison Volquez
Reserve #2: Danny Haren
Reserve #3: Carlos Zambrano
Reserve#4: Ben Sheets

Relievers
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/ERA+
Lidge 8/5.8/18.2/393
Bell 8/5.6/19.1/180
Cordero 8/6.2/14.1/194
Saito 7/6.2/14.8/201
Wood 8/6.0/13.2/148
Kuo* 7/4.5/23.5/260
Burton 7/3.9/15.5/200
Rauch 7/5.8/12.1/149
Gregg 7/6.1/10.6/159
Buchholz 7/4.0/14.3/251
Lyon 7/5.1/11.4/185
Park* 6/4.3/19.9/166
Durbin 6/3.5/19.0/234
McClellan 6/3.2/15.5/143
Madson 4/2.5/15.8/159
*- started some games

Pretty tight at the top here, but Lidge and Bell look about right to me. Also, I haven't actually seen Chan Ho Park using PEDs, but something sure smells funny about his season.

Starting Closer (?): Brad Lidge
Reserve: Heath Bell

And that's it. 25 representatives from each league. I think that's a halfway decent attempt to award selections based on merit. I'm sure there are better methods out there, but in most cases the best players at each position were fairly obvious to me. Now I'm off to punch holes in my ballots, and only a few weeks too late.