Thursday, July 10, 2008

Enjoy it while it lasts?

I'm gonna take a break from my all-star project (woof, that first list took a long time to put together) to comment on the state of the Mets.

After shutting down the Giants for the second straight day, the Mets now sit only a game and a half out of first with a +24 run differential. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds has them in a virtual dead heat with the Phils to win the division. With John Maine on the mound today against the best move the Mets didn't make and the awful Rockies coming into town, the good guys have a decent chance to be in first place by the All-Star break. There's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this team.

However, I do not believe that this team, as presently constructed, has any real chance of sustaining success for the rest of the season. The team's recent surge, during which they've gone 7-2, has been fueled largely by surprise contributions from Endy Chavez (.395 OBP over that span), Fernando Tatis (.500 OBP and .833 SLG), and Damion Easley (.410 OBP). These three will not be able to sustain anywhere near this level of production. Perhaps Easley might be able to produce consistently better than Castillo, but the team can't expect him to hit like Uggla or Utley for very long. Chavez is so good defensively (21 FRAR), that he is worth starting as long as he hits at replacement level, but he's a career .312 OBP, .370 SLG hitter. Tatis has raised his season numbers to .288/.324/.414, but clutch performance aside, that's still not nearly enough for a poor defensive corner outfielder. The three have combined for a .435 BABiP over the last 9 games, which will regress to the mean with a vengeance any day now; leaving the team with a very underwhelming lineup.

Don't get me wrong, there have been some very nice developments over the past week and a half- the improvement of the starting pitching, especially Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Delgado's reemergence (.393/.438/.714 over the last week), and a big time series win in Philly that puts the Mets up 7-3 head-to-head for the season; but if this team does not make a move to improve its offense in at least one corner outfield spot they will not be able to sustain this success.

In 2004, the Mets were a half-dozen games out of first when they made the trades for Zambrano and Benson. The trades, one disastrous and one pretty good (thank you, Johnny Maine!), didn't come close to pushing the team over the top because the team wasn't as near to the top as they they looked (not that 6 games at the all-star break is very close). Over the first four months of 2004, the Mets were -3 in run differential. This year, the Mets have a much better differential, but they're +24 only after going +31 in their last 9 games. In the other 82, they've been -7. This temporary offensive surge has put the Mets in a good position to make a playoff run, but they will need another bat to take the division.

That bat probably won't come from within the organization. Ryan Church might be back in a few weeks, but he might miss the rest of the year. (Right now, if you told me he'd miss the rest of this season but he'd be fine the rest of his career, I'd sign up for that on the spot.) Moises Alou will not be healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. The team's prospects (Evans, Carp, Martinez, et al) don't seem ready for the bigs yet, and as much a Val Pascucci fan I am, he's not enough by himself to swing the division New York's way. Angel Pagan has started his rehab games, but I'm not sold that he's much more than a fourth outfielder.

The Mets need to add at least a league average outfielder to stay in this race. Whether that player is Bonds, Lofton, Ibanez, Dunn, Nady or someone else, they need to get him soon. They need to add him before regression grabs hold of this team.

In 2004, the team mistakenly believed it was a contender and made two trade deadline moves that hurt the team in the long run (as much as I love him, Maine < Kazmir) without helping it enough in the short run. In 2008, the Mets are much closer to being a playoff team, but they'll probably only get there if they make a move.

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