Wednesday, July 9, 2008

2008 ASG, American Style

Okie dokie, I'll get right to it.

Catcher
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Mauer 13/8.9/27.8/.328/138
Suzuki 9/8.9/6.0/.267/96
Navarro 9/7.4/13.9/.300/119
Buck 8/2.6/0.4/.255/85
Pierzynski 6/4.3/13.3/.268/102

Well, Joe Mauer really jumps off the page here. He's got a huge lead in Win Shares and is dominating the offensive stats. Kurt Suzuki is giving up a lot of ground to Dioner Navarro at the plate, but it seems his defense more than makes up the difference. It's mighty close, but I'll give Suzuki the nod.
Starter: Joe Mauer
Reserve: Kurt Suzuki

First Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Youkilis 14/8.0/29.5/.317/141
Morneau 15/8.0/26.3/.318/136
Giambi 8/6.1/25.6/.323/148
Cabrera 9/5.5/23.2/.297/126
Pena 8/5.0/6.9/.290/119
Kotchman 10/4.6/12.7/.276/105

Yikes, this is a close one. Youkilis and Morneau are neck and neck here, but I'm giving it to the Greek God of Walks based on his edge in VORP and OPS+.
Starter: Kevin Youkilis
Reserve: Justin Morneau

Second Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Kinsler 16/10.8/49.7/.338/153
Roberts 14/9.6/30.8/.310/130
Ellis 11/8.9/10.1/.286/106
Iwamura 10/7.2/8.7/.280/98
Pedroia 9/8.4/25.9/.294/113

Pretty easy to pick em here, but I did not realize just how big a year Kinsler's having. Those are MVP-type numbers.
Starter: Ian Kinsler
Reserve: Brian Roberts

Third Base
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Rodriguez 12/8.4/38.2/.342/166
Longoria 9/10.3/23.8/.323/136
Lowell 9/7.4/19.1/.302/126
Guillen 9/6.6/17.4/.290/116
Blake 10/4.3/13.3/.288/110
Crede 9/5.8/11.7/.282/116
Vazquez 8/4.3/16.0/.310/133
Figgins 9/2.4/4.1/.271/90

No surprise who's getting the start here. A-Rod's a step above Evan Longoria, who's a step above everyone else. Interestingly, this is a really tight group by Win Shares, but not anything else.
Starter: Alex Rodriguez
Reserve: Evan Longoria

Shortstop
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Young 10/8.8/21.7/.284/106
Cabrera 9/7.3/10.9/.255/82
Peralta 6/6.5/14.6/.269/97
Crosby 7/5.3/8.3/.262/92
Jeter 7/3.7/17.0/.271/98

Woof, not a great year for shortstops in the AL. Young is the only one who would warrant consideration in the NL.
Starter: Michael Young
Reserve: Orlando Cabrera

Centerfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Upton 14/10.0/23.7/.314/120
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Hunter 11/7.0/17.8/.280/109
Suzuki 9/7.5/22.5/.292/101

Centerfield, however, is loaded. Leaving one of those top three out is hard, but I'm gonna go with BJ Upton's big lead in WARP3 and Josh Hamilton's slightly better offense. Grady Sizemore goes back into the pool of available outfielders.
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton

Right Field
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Markakis 12/9.4/26.9/.314/136
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Hinske 9/5.6/16.9/.317/134

Hinske's only played 35 games in right this year, and only has about 250 PA so far, so I'm not really considering him. Vlad and Mags both trail the leaders in WARP3, so they're out. JD Drew has been the best offensive player, but it looks like Nick Markakis' D makes up the difference. Jermaine Dye's a close third.
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: JD Drew

Outfield
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Sizemore 14/7.9/38.5/.320/139
Dye 9/8.3/25.5/.303/136
Damon 14/7.0/26.7/.306/130
Ramirez 12/6.1/25.9/.307/129
Ordonez 11/5.3/21.3/.301/131
Quentin 12/6.0/23.2/.301/130
Dejesus 12/5.6/20.0/.301/124
Guerrero 11/5.7/21.4/.294/125

Since Win Shares, WARP3, and VORP are all affected by which position a player fields, I'm going to weigh EQA and OPS+ heavier than for the other positions. Even still, it Sizemore and Dye have been the two best remaining outfielders. However, since neither was one of the top two at their positions, neither should start. So, for the starting left field position, the choice comes down to:
Name Win Shares/WARP3/VORP/EQA/OPS+
Drew 13/7.7/30.0/.332/151
Hamilton 15/7.8/34.5/.321/142

I'm giving JD Drew the nod. The revised outfield looks like this:
Centerfield
Starter: BJ Upton
Reserve: Josh Hamilton
Right Field
Starter: Nick Markakis
Reserve: Jermaine Dye
Left Field
Starter: JD Drew
Reserve: Grady Sizemore

Designated Hitter
Name VORP/EQA/OPS+
Bradley 41.0/.357/177
Giambi 25.6/.323/148
Hamilton 34.5/.321/142
Sizemore 38.5/.320/139
Damon 26.7/.306/130
Huff 27.9/.304/131

I got rid of the "overall game" numbers because, well, it's the DH. Milton Bradley saves me from having to revise my outfield again. Also: wow.
Starter: Milton Bradley
Reserve: Jason Giambi

Well, I'm too pooped to tackle the pitchers right now. I'm also watching The Great Johan as he tries not to get shown up by Mike Pelfrey. Let's go Mets.

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